Is a power shortage looming? Let's talk about it for a while

The so-called integrated electricity plan, covering power needs and sources for the next 20 years, was slated to be released Dec. 8.

But when B.C. Liberal MLAs were given a preview at a caucus meeting two days beforehand, they did not like what they saw.

Premier Gordon Campbell thought BC Hydro was getting ahead of itself.

The plan emphasized the need to develop new sources of electricity. British Columbians were barely aware of looming shortages.

Government members found too much emphasis on the proposed hydroelectric project at Site C on the Peace River.

Hydro had even highlighted that lightning rod for environmental protests in the advance notice to the news media, promising the electricity plan would "outline the future of the highly debated Site C dam."

Nice of Hydro to remind everyone of Site C's capacity to generate controversy along with electricity.

With the province on a more stable economic track and the world invited to attend the 2010 Winter Olympics, Premier Campbell does not want a high-profile showdown over a hydroelectric dam.

Still, the auditorium was booked for the announcement. Business leaders were lined up to share the platform with Hydro CEO Bob Elton. But with less than 48 hours to go, Hydro was ordered to ash- can the release of the integrated electricity plan.

It was a major, public humiliation for Elton. He had every reason to think government was in the loop. Hydro had briefed the premier's office about the plan well beforehand.

Nevertheless, he played the good soldier. Said nothing publicly. Sent the team back to the drawing board. Recognized a new political reality, where government would keep Hydro on a shorter leash.

The reworked plan was dutifully submitted to the government caucus on Tuesday evening of this week. It passed muster, enabling Hydro to release the plan to the public Wednesday morning.

Gone is the get-on-with-it tone of the first version, which presumed the case for more electrical generation capacity had already been made.

The new emphasis is on "working with the provincial government" to engage the public in another of those "dialogues," the premier likes.

First, Hydro will try to persuade British Columbians of a looming shortage of power, then get on with the options for addressing it.

The initial exercise will take up the rest of this year, according to Energy Minister Richard Neufeld in an interview following the release of the electricity plan.

If people come round to the idea that we are short of power now and sure of being shorter in the future, then the government can get on with addressing the options in 2007.

The first priority, Neufeld says, is conservation. Hydro will also continue to commission small-scale and green power projects from private operators.

And Site C? "It's in there," Neufeld said, and sure enough, there are a number of references buried deep inside more than 800 pages of the electricity plan plus appendices.

Site C is said to have some advantages. Dependable power. Increased storage of water. Minimal contribution to greenhouse.

But it also means flooding of some agricultural land and impacts on fish, wildlife, local communities and first nations.

The cost is said to be $2.3 billion to $3.2 billion. But that's in 2004 dollars for a project not likely to be completed for another 10 years and without allowance for interest, corporate overhead or mitigating impacts on communities, the environment or first nations.

Neufeld says the cost could run as high as $5 billion, and he might well be low.

In any event, the plan stops well short of pushing Site C is a viable option. Neufeld, who used to make a practice of promoting it, sounds to be back down to earth.

He noted that the dam could generate close to 5,000 gigawatts of power a year, enough for almost half a million homes.

But Hydro has added almost as much capacity in recent years through smaller power projects. A call for additional bids last fall brought proposals whose collective capacity would outstrip that of Site C.

“All this”, Neufeld notes, “raises the question: Is there a necessity to go to a large dam?"

"I don't think we could make the decision today!" he said, answering his own question.

The work to be done involves more analysis of costs, impacts and the concerns of those who would be most affected by the project, especially first nations.

Neufeld sounded to be in no rush to deal with any of this.

If there’s a serious electricity shortage in the province, the government conveys no sense of urgency about it.

- Vaughn Palmer